Navigating Uncertainty: Strategic Foresight and Democracy in Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada
About the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine | Written on September, 2023
Introduction
In recent years, Ukraine has found itself at the epicentre of a struggle for democracy, particularly due to the large-scale war caused by the Russian invasion. This conflict has put immense pressure on the nation's democratic institutions and societal fabric. Despite these formidable challenges, the Ukrainian state and society have shown remarkable resilience. Central to this resilience is the role played by Ukraine's parliamentary institution, the Verkhovna Rada. Among the Rada's initiatives, the focus on strategic foresight and long-term planning stands out. This essay critically analyses how the Verkhovna Rada is leveraging strategic foresight to bolster democracy, manage risks, and navigate future uncertainties, especially in this period of conflict.
The Importance of Strategic Foresight
Strategic foresight is not merely a modern trend in governance; it is a necessity. The Verkhovna Rada has been keen to adopt a future-oriented approach, recognising that traditional political tools are insufficient for addressing today's complex challenges. An inter-faction association for strategic foresight was established within the Rada. This organisation aims to introduce modern approaches to long-term planning in the public sector, enabling the institution not just to react to current issues, but also to anticipate and prepare for future challenges.
Strategic foresight provides a nuanced understanding of potential risks and options, allowing policymakers to consider today's challenges through the lens of the future. This perspective offers more effective strategic solutions and strengthens democratic processes by uniting various political factions and societal sectors in discussions about the future.
Citizen Engagement and Collective Intelligence
Citizen involvement is integral to the practice of strategic foresight. The Verkhovna Rada has employed innovative methods, such as chatbots, to engage the public and gather opinions and suggestions for their foresight studies. This approach moves policy-making and leverages collective intelligence to shape the nation's direction. Such participatory governance is crucial for a nation undergoing conflict and transition, enhancing the quality of its democratic processes.
Case Study: Ukraine 2040
One of the landmark initiatives was the "Ukraine 2040" study, conducted in collaboration with experts from the UK Parliament and based on methodologies from the Cambridge Centre for Existential Risks. This comprehensive study identified clusters of uncertainties in various realms, such as international support, war termination options, migration, and socio-economic development. Four main scenarios for Ukraine's future were developed based on these clusters, providing invaluable blueprints for policymakers and insights into the risks and opportunities that lie ahead.
Institutionalising Foresight
The Rada has ambitious plans to institutionalise foresight within the parliamentary research service and across government departments. The creation of dedicated foresight units within these institutions will provide a comprehensive mechanism for long-term planning based on future-oriented thinking. This is a critical step for a country facing large-scale challenges and strategic uncertainties, such as the ongoing war.
Looking Forward
The Ukrainian Parliament seeks answers to critical questions by looking to the future, adopting a perspective that prioritises the interests of the next generation. This is not merely a policy approach; it is a testament to the strength and vitality of Ukrainian democracy.
Conclusion
Strategic foresight in the Verkhovna Rada represents more than just a legislative initiative; it signals a paradigm shift in governance and serves as a robust democratic tool. By embracing long-term planning and participatory governance, Ukraine is not only navigating its present-day challenges, particularly those exacerbated by the Russian invasion, but also optimising its strategies for a more secure and prosperous future.
Ukraine serves as an exemplar for other democracies, demonstrating that even in conditions of conflict and uncertainty, forward-looking governance mechanisms can prevail. Indeed, Ukraine's focus on the future rather than the past is not merely a choice; it is a compelling testament to the enduring strength of its democracy.